We finally made it to Santa's Village...and back

After we had to postpone our vacation to Santa's Village, my son had an idea. "Let's go there for my birthday," he said. Surely the rain would be over by July 8th. So, I requested the time off at work and we made motel reservations for three days. The middle day was my son's birthday. They were saying that the long string of rainy days was coming to an end. The days we were planning for our vacation were going to be clear. Every day we'd wake up and check the weather forecast first thing. Three days of good weather. The day before we left, they changed the weather forecast. Should they be allowed to do that? All of a sudden, it looked like rain. But it looked like only chances of rain. Well, I guess there is always a chance of rain. The day we left, it was just overcast and looked like it might clear. Of course, that was about 200 miles south of our destination. When we got there, it was raining, Hard. And they were saying, on the local news now, that the rain would continue into the next day. Evan's birthday. Should we stay or go and come back another time? The park has a policy that if you arrive after 3 PM (as we had), you get in the next day free. We decided to go in. On that cue, the skies opened up and nearly washed us out of the park. In between heavy rainfall, there were periods of light rainfall where we could run from one ride to the next. We were only able to do indoor rides (except for a couple of turns of the Log Flume where you get wet anyway). We weren't able to get in much fun but we kept looking forward to the next day which was supposed to be better. We got to our motel that night completely exhausted from the five hour car ride and from dashing around the park during lulls in the rain.

The next morning, we checked the weather report: rain all day! The day of clearing had been changed again by the forecasters to the next day. We decided that we'd probably get a rain check at the park and use that to wait until the clear day. We planned to see a movie and visit other attractions in the area after we went to the park and got our rain check. Well, we found out that the nice "Arrive after 3 PM - get the next day free" policy was only valid for the next day. You couldn't move it and you couldn't get a rain check fro that day. We were stuck. We either had to go in or waste the money we'd spent for that day in the park. We went in. We figured we could ride the outdoor rides during breaks in the rain and see the shows (two live song and dance shows and a 3-D movie) during the rainy periods.

Well, it turned out to be one of the better days we'd ever spent at the park. There was hardly anyone there (because of the weather) and Evan had many nice surprises during the day because it was his birthday. Many of the ride operators wished him a happy birthday. He got a nice ornament at Santa's house (where we had our Christmas card picture taken) and during one of the live shows, he was called up on stage after the show and the cast led everyone in singing Happy Birthday to him. It was funny, too, that there were so many people in the audience because we saw hardly anyone around the park that day. It seemed like everyone at the park had all gathered for that one show because of the rain keeping them from the other rides. We were all excited that the next day, with its better weather, was going to be even better.

The next day had perfect weather. It was cool and dry (for July) and we got there early. But there was a line waiting to get in. It had rained so long that people had held off going to the park until the weather was good. It wasn't too bad in the morning but as the day went on, the lines for rides grew longer and longer. We were spending more time in lines than on the rides. We ended up leaving early that day. It was an interesting lesson to learn. As the old saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for. You may get it." The rainy day was the better day. Next year, we look for a rainy stretch of weather to visit Santa's Village.

By the way, you may wonder how we reconcile the fact that we are Christians but we go to a place built around the commercialism of Santa Claus. For one thing, our kids know that the commercial version of Santa Claus is make believe. They know their gifts come from Mom, Dad and their relatives and friends. Secondly, they know the story of the real Saint Nicolas who lived in what is now Turkey around the year 300 AD. And finally, Santa's Village acknowledges the true meaning of Christmas. There is a manger scene, a large cross and a small St. Nicholas Chapel right in the middle of all the rides and attractions.

The fireworks were great

My son and I went to the fireworks display last night and they were the best ever. We've got it down to a science now. We leave at the same time every year (leaving enough time to arrive before they start but not so long that we have to wait too long for the show), park at the same place (far enough from the viewing area to not get stuck in the rush to leave but not so far away to have to walk more than 20 minutes) and sit at the same place (it's got a clear view and isn't crowded). My wife and daughter have stayed home every year because it is well past my daughter's bed time.

[The picture here is from this site: http://blog.besttraveldeals.net/?p=238]

Our town's fireworks are very nice because of their size and amount but what makes them really special is that they are displayed at the seashore so there are many clear viewing areas. Even the island across the sound can see them. And last night, one of the towns on the island had their fireworks at the same time so we got two shows at once. We sit on some rocks bordering an inlet from the sound (that's a large branch of the ocean between the island and the mainland). So, there is no one in front of us. It almost seems that the fireworks are put on just for us. There are lots of people around but there is plenty of room for everyone. Before I was married, I would go to the place closest to the display which was always crowded and noisy. Often, people would be there throwing firecrackers at other people. It almost seemed like a lot of people weren't there for the fireworks but to just be seen or to cause trouble. I only went there a couple of times. I didn't start going again until my son wanted to see them. That's why we picked a less crowded area. It's a couple of miles from the closest location but still allows a fine view.

Next year, we're all going to go. We'll see if my daughter can stay up. I can't wait!

Mathematics and the Game Show

Last week, I saw a reference on the Coding Horror blog about an interesting problem posed and answered on the website of Marilyn vos Savant. Marilyn is the woman who, for a while, was listed in the Guinness Book of World Records as the holder of the highest recorded IQ. I've always enjoyed her column in Parade magazine. Here is the question:

You are on a game show and they show you three doors of which you can open one. Behind one of the doors is a good prize (say a new car) and the other two doors hide things you wouldn't want (I think they used goats in the example). You pick one of the doors but they don't open it yet. Then the host, knowing which door hides the car, opens one of the other doors you didn't pick that has the goats. Then the host asks you, "Do you want to keep your door or trade it for the other door that isn't open?" The question then is, "Should you change your selection or stay with the one you originally selected?"

Most people think that the answer is that it doesn't make any difference. That's what I first thought, too. It seems there is a 50-50 chance that your original door holds the car and you can't do any better by switching. But in the 1990 Parade article, Marilyn said you should change your selection. As a matter of fact, she says that you have twice as much chance of winning if you change which door you want to open!

Her original explanation of why this is true didn't convince a lot of people - including a number of math professors in college. She got a lot of nasty mail saying that she was wrong and that she was afraid to admit it. Then she did what everyone should have done from the beginning. She wrote a simple table listing every possible outcome and just counted up the good and the bad outcomes to show that it is indeed better to change your selection once the host has opened one of the doors that doesn't hold the car. There are good lessons for all of us here: 1) Math doesn't have to be hard, 2) Even when we think we know the answer, it's best to write it down, 3) We shouldn't be so sure of ourselves until we've checked the facts. I suggest you go to Marilyn's discussion of this problem and to see her table to convince yourself.

Of course, the whole premise of this is based on the idea that you would want a car more than you would want the goats :-) Perhaps you'd rather have the goats. Then I guess it's better to stay with your original selection. By the way, the picture of the goats at the top of this article is from http://www.keeping-goats.com/

Some uses for mathematics

Mathematics is a tool we use every day. But I often hear my 12-year old son say, "What's the use of learning this stuff?" He can be talking about any of the subjects he is learning but often he is talking about math. So, I'm going to try to write two short articles about uses for mathematics that you may not have thought about.

The first has to do with the recent elections in the country of Iran. That country had elections for the post of President. The current President is a very vocal anti-Western leader who is pushing for Iran to develop nuclear capabilities. He says it is for developing the ability to make nuclear power plants but other countries are worried about Iran's developing nuclear weapons. So, while we wouldn't normally be interested in an election in a foreign country, this one has consequences for our country and the rest of the world.

After the election, in which the current President won with a large majority, there were cries of fraud from the the opposition parties. You could just chalk this up to losers saying they were cheated but this interesting story in The Washington Post, titled, "The Devil is in the Digits", shows how, using mathematical principles and little bit of psychology, you can make a pretty good case that the election was not fair.

Using statistics, you can figure out that the numbers of votes and the distribution of the votes was probably manufactured. Usually, the last two digits of the large number of votes is a random number but in this case, they weren't. It can be proven mathematically that those numbers are pretty far away from being random. Well, if they aren't random, where did they come from? Either there was some bias to the numbers or someone made them up. That's where psychology is involved.

Psychology is the study of the human mind and why we do and don't do certain things. In this case it helps us understand that it is hard for people to make up numbers that are truly random. And by studying the numbers from the Iranian election, you can see that there is a real basis for the requests of the opposition parties for an investigation into the election.

Unfortunately, the Iranian government is really run by a small number of Muslim clerics and they have no intention of overturning the election or even of truly investigating it. They have done a rather lax investigation but it won't turn up anything because they don't want it to turn up anything. That is why it is important to rely on the unbiased numbers you get from a scientific investigation. Whether the election was truly fraudulent or not, there is a real reason for investigating. But if you ignore the math, it's just a matter of opinion. And those in power have the final opinion!

Next time I'll write about the mathematics involved in a game show that even confused mathematicians!

A funny story that almost happened

One of my college roommates had come to visit me in Pittsburgh and we were on the streetcar on our way home from a long day. I looked around at all the tired, bored people and had an idea. I turned to my friend and said, "I'll give you twenty dollars if you walk to the front of the car and lead everyone in a round of 'Home on the Range'." I don't know what made me do it and I don't know where the idea came from (this was long before the Seinfeld "Chinese Restaurant" episode where Jerry offers Elaine $50 to go to a table of strangers and take an egg roll).

We looked at each other for a minute and he actually looked like he was considering it. I started sweating wondering what I'd do if he took me up on it: Should I join in singing or just sit as low as possible and be embarrassed? In the end, he didn't do it but we both laughed about it. Every time I think about it, I laugh to myself. Just as I'm doing now.

[The picture is from Wikipedia Commons at this page.]

We had to delay our vacation

I shouldn't be at work today. I should be with my family on our way to vacation. But this year, for only the second time, we had to postpone our vacation.

Every year, we head north to Jefferson, NH to visit Santa's Village. But this year, it is raining so much that we decided to postpone the trip. It's not too bad. We'll go in a couple of weeks but it might be a little more crowded. But it's better than having to wear raincoats all day and worry that we'll get wet on the rides.

We were all looking forward to it and it's a disappointment that we're not on our way there. I love the smell and the sounds as we enter the park. Everyone is so nice there and it's such a relaxed atmosphere. But it's one more thing to look forward to. The only other time we had to postpone our trip was when were already on our way.

We were pulling into a gas station and I had a really hard time stopping at the pump. I checked the brake fluid and it was empty! I couldn't believe I'd let it get that bad. There was a small store there that carried brake fluid. But after I poured it in and tested the brakes a couple of times, the fluid level dropped right away. We had a little braking but not enough to continue on our vacation. So, we looked for a full-service garage in nearby towns and finally found one that said they'd look at it. When they finally took a look, after hours and hours of waiting, they said they'd have to order parts. We couldn't wait any longer so we had to limp home. Some of the brake lines were completely shot. I thought they were made of non-rusting material but something had ruined them and we couldn't use the car except to get home. I don't ever want to drive that far with the car loaded with people I love and worrying about every mile we traveled. I'll take a delayed vacation any day.

"Of course I'm sure!"

The title does not reflect the way I think. But, apparently, people prefer to get advice from someone who is sure of them self. I saw an interesting article at the New Scientist website titled, "Humans prefer cockiness to expertise". It says that we will even forgive the confident person some errors if they remain confident. This saddens me for two reasons. One is that it is scary that leaders of our country and the people who run our companies are like this, too. They are not making decisions based on whether the advice they get comes from someone who has proven themselves in the past. They are listening to the blow-hard who is sure of himself. No wonder we get into wars we shouldn't and our economy is on the rocks. No wonder we make bad decisions about whether it is better to feed the hungry or make a new model of car that uses even more gasoline.

The other reason this saddens me is that I do not give my advice confidently. At least most of the time. I almost always couch my opinions in layers of options and other possibilities. Internally, I'm sure of my opinions but I don't want people to just believe what I say just because I said it. I want to offer them evidence that should be weighed against other evidence they may receive. And this is the reason that my advice is so often ignored! I could say that the world is wrong and I am right and that people should be accepting advice from trusted sources and looking at the track record of these confident people instead of blindly accepting their advice. But I'm not going to change the world. The trouble is, I'm going to have a hard time adjusting to this. Giving advice is too important to me to change the way I act just to get people to take my advice more often. The thought that someone might take my advice and be hurt by it inhibits me from just saying everything more boldly. I am not always right and neither are the confident people. But many of them don't care. To them, it more important to win the fight. It is more important for them to have their views accepted.

Last week I didn't have a chance to write down some stories about my father like I hoped I would. But here is a little bit about him as it relates to this topic. He told me once that he was surprised by how often people accepted his ideas and advice. I recognize now why that was the case. He was very confident. He was sure of himself. He wasn't a blow-hard and he wasn't after power but when he said something, you just believed him. In my father's case, though, he didn't necessarily want people to just believe him with no other opinions being considered. He looked at it like I do (of course, I get this trait from him) - that you need to get a variety of opinions and then make the decision. You don't just accept something someone says because they're confident. Another trait I got from him was that we tend to distrust the advice of people who see too confident. In my father's case, it was an unconscious ability to sound confident. Even if he wasn't!